NBA games

DEN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
135–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN33393033135
IND28203141120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home IND
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 52 6 4
Nikola Jokic S 35 24 8 13
Bruce Brown 26 14 4 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 11 0 1
Peyton Watson S 36 11 7 0
Jonas Valanciunas 11 9 3 0
Cameron Johnson S 34 9 4 4
Zeke Nnaji 12 2 2 1
Curtis Jones 2 2 1 0
Spencer Jones S 17 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 23 3 4
Andrew Nembhard S 28 16 3 7
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 15 7 2
Ben Sheppard S 18 14 5 2
T.J. McConnell 17 14 1 6
Jarace Walker 22 11 3 0
Garrison Mathews 20 9 0 1
Tony Bradley 14 7 4 0
Isaiah Jackson 17 6 6 0
Jay Huff S 18 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Cameron Johnson DEN
11%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
11%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Jarace Walker IND
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.5 11.5 10.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.7 4.3 7.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 24.3 6.5 3.6
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.7 5.4 3.1
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.3 2.9 6.6
6 Peyton Watson DEN 15.3 6.2 2.1
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.1 4.1 2.6
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.4 2.7 1.7
9 Jarace Walker IND 10.3 4.7 1.8
10 Jay Huff IND 9.2 4.1 1.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.1 3.0 4.8
12 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.0 5.2 1.2
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.0 3.3 2.3
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 3.2 2.2
15 Spencer Jones DEN 6.6 3.0 1.1
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.3 4.7 1.0
17 Ethan Thompson IND 6.0 1.6 1.8
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.7 4.3 1.0
19 Garrison Mathews IND 5.5 1.2 1.1
20 Tony Bradley IND 4.8 2.0 0.9
21 Johnny Furphy IND 4.3 1.7 0.6
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.1 0.6
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.2 1.0
24 Curtis Jones DEN 3.4 1.1 1.0
25 Taelon Peter IND 3.3 1.6 1.3
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.