NBA games

POR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
122–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR36323123122
CLE33252725110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CLE
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 36 27 8 7
Caleb Love 27 20 5 1
Shaedon Sharpe 32 20 9 5
Toumani Camara S 35 17 6 4
Jerami Grant S 34 16 5 6
Sidy Cissoko S 25 11 4 1
Donovan Clingan S 25 5 13 2
Duop Reath 11 4 2 0
Yang Hansen 5 2 1 1
Rayan Rupert 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 33 5 5
Evan Mobley S 35 23 10 5
Thomas Bryant 13 14 6 0
Jaylon Tyson S 33 14 7 2
De'Andre Hunter S 30 10 3 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 16 7 4 1
Darius Garland S 29 6 2 4
Lonzo Ball 24 3 7 2
Dean Wade 16 0 1 1
Craig Porter Jr. 10 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Darius Garland CLE
11%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
8%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 31.7 5.4 6.7
2 Deni Avdija POR 27.1 7.6 8.0
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 5.0 3.0
4 Evan Mobley CLE 21.0 9.5 4.4
5 Jerami Grant POR 18.3 4.3 2.7
6 Darius Garland CLE 17.9 3.3 7.0
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.4 4.2 3.0
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.0 5.7 2.5
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 13.6 6.1 2.2
10 Donovan Clingan POR 12.6 10.1 1.9
11 Caleb Love POR 8.7 2.8 1.9
12 Kris Murray POR 7.7 4.2 1.4
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.4 3.6 1.0
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.1 4.1 4.9
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 3.2 2.5
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 6.6 2.5 1.7
17 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.9 1.9
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.1 5.9 0.7
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 6.1 1.7 1.5
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 1.3 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.5 2.1 0.7
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 2.0 0.6
23 Yang Hansen POR 2.8 1.7 0.7
24 Duop Reath POR 2.5 1.0 0.5
25 Javonte Cooke POR 2.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.