NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
124–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32312833124
GS26184424112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 38 3 4
Jalen Williams S 33 22 3 6
Chet Holmgren S 30 21 8 3
Aaron Wiggins 22 11 3 0
Ajay Mitchell S 32 10 4 3
Isaiah Joe 18 9 3 3
Kenrich Williams 17 5 2 2
Cason Wallace S 28 4 6 1
Branden Carlson 3 3 0 0
Jaylin Williams 22 1 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 28 17 4 4
Pat Spencer 21 17 3 6
Seth Curry 18 14 2 2
Buddy Hield 28 13 1 4
Draymond Green S 29 13 9 4
Gary Payton II 27 13 5 5
Jonathan Kuminga 16 8 7 1
Jimmy Butler III S 15 6 3 1
Will Richard S 25 5 4 2
Quinten Post 18 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
17%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
3 Draymond Green GS
14%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
12%
5 Cason Wallace OKC
11%
6 Quinten Post GS
10%
7 Moses Moody GS
10%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 4.8 7.6
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.3 6.2 5.8
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.3 7.8 2.0
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13.8 3.7 3.7
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.5 4.0 2.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.6 5.6 2.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 4.1 2.6
8 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.7 1.6
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.8 2.8 2.0
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.1 2.7 2.4
11 Draymond Green GS 9.8 6.2 4.8
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.2 4.2 2.4
13 Will Richard GS 6.3 2.6 1.0
14 Buddy Hield GS 6.3 2.3 1.5
15 Quinten Post GS 6.0 3.3 1.3
16 Pat Spencer GS 5.5 2.0 2.7
17 Gary Payton II GS 5.0 3.9 1.9
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.3 2.3 0.8
19 Branden Carlson OKC 3.3 2.0 0.6
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.1 1.6 0.8
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 2.8 0.6
22 Gui Santos GS 2.6 1.5 0.4
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.