NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
119–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32273921119
SA36273429126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Spencer 22 21 1 6
Jaylen Wells S 28 20 1 2
Zach Edey S 30 19 15 1
John Konchar 18 13 2 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 27 12 7 7
Jock Landale 15 10 6 0
Cedric Coward S 29 9 3 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 7 6 2
Santi Aldama 24 4 3 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 13 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 36 31 5 5
De'Aaron Fox S 31 29 4 4
Dylan Harper 21 15 1 6
Devin Vassell S 28 12 5 2
Jeremy Sochan 18 11 6 1
Keldon Johnson 28 11 6 4
Julian Champagnie S 35 7 6 2
Carter Bryant 11 6 0 0
Luke Kornet S 28 4 6 4
Kelly Olynyk 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach Edey MEM
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
11%
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
7 Luke Kornet SA
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
9 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.3 4.1 7.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.4 5.0 3.0
3 Devin Vassell SA 17.8 3.8 2.9
4 Santi Aldama MEM 16.4 6.5 3.5
5 Zach Edey MEM 14.4 10.9 1.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.0 7.4 2.2
7 Cedric Coward MEM 13.2 5.4 2.7
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.1 3.5 2.0
9 Dylan Harper SA 12.8 3.4 3.5
10 Harrison Barnes SA 12.2 3.8 2.2
11 Cam Spencer MEM 11.8 2.4 4.0
12 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 4.6 1.7
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 11.1 5.2 7.5
14 Jock Landale MEM 10.4 5.4 1.6
15 Luke Kornet SA 8.9 5.9 1.8
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.7 2.2 2.5
17 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.8 3.0 1.5
18 Kelly Olynyk SA 5.1 2.6 1.9
19 David Jones Garcia SA 4.4 1.9 1.7
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 1.8 0.7
21 John Konchar MEM 3.4 3.0 1.0
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.4 1.3 0.9
23 GG Jackson MEM 3.2 1.5 0.4
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.0 1.9 0.5
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.6 1.7 0.7
26 Harrison Ingram SA 2.5 1.6 0.4
27 Riley Minix SA 2.4 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.