NBA games

MIN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
149–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN3127422920149
NO2543352613142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NO
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 47 44 5 4
Rudy Gobert S 38 26 13 2
Naz Reid 32 18 5 6
Jaden McDaniels S 33 17 4 2
Julius Randle S 33 16 5 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 15 4 5
Jaylen Clark 15 6 2 0
Mike Conley 13 5 1 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 8 2 0 1
Rob Dillingham 7 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 41 33 15 4
Saddiq Bey S 35 22 6 3
Jeremiah Fears S 34 21 3 5
Derik Queen S 39 21 8 6
Jose Alvarado 25 14 3 3
Jordan Hawkins 22 10 0 0
Micah Peavy 20 8 1 2
Trey Alexander 12 7 2 1
Bryce McGowens S 26 6 1 1
Kevon Looney 12 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes driving layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Derik Queen NO
11%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Bryce McGowens NO
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.0 4.9 5.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.3 7.6 6.5
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.8 5.5 3.5
4 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.3 4.3 2.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.4 6.2 2.7
6 Saddiq Bey NO 16.0 7.3 3.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.8 4.0 3.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.7 5.1 3.3
9 Derik Queen NO 14.7 7.2 4.6
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 9.9 2.4
11 Jose Alvarado NO 10.8 3.2 3.1
12 Micah Peavy NO 7.4 2.7 1.4
13 Bryce McGowens NO 6.6 2.3 1.2
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.5 1.8 2.8
15 Hunter Dickinson NO 5.3 2.9 1.0
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.2 1.7 0.9
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.8 1.5 0.9
18 Trey Alexander NO 4.7 1.7 1.0
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 2.2 0.8
20 Bones Hyland MIN 4.1 1.5 1.3
21 Johnny Juzang MIN 4.0 1.7 0.7
22 Kevon Looney NO 4.0 3.8 1.2
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.9 1.7 1.0
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.7 1.5
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.5 1.5 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.4 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.