NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32202441117
BOS21373629123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 34 35 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 29 7 2
Josh Hart S 36 19 7 4
Jalen Brunson S 39 15 2 11
Miles McBride S 36 9 3 6
Tyler Kolek 15 4 1 3
Jordan Clarkson 23 4 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 1 5 0
Guerschon Yabusele 8 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 42 4 4
Derrick White S 35 22 2 5
Anfernee Simons 24 12 1 3
Josh Minott 27 11 6 0
Payton Pritchard S 30 10 4 3
Jordan Walsh S 19 8 6 1
Neemias Queta S 21 8 6 0
Sam Hauser 19 6 4 1
Hugo Gonzalez 23 4 5 0
Baylor Scheierman 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 Xavier Tillman BOS
7%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
7%
10 Jordan Walsh BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.8 7.2 5.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 3.6 6.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.2 10.2 3.9
4 Mikal Bridges NY 18.7 4.7 3.4
5 Derrick White BOS 18.6 4.5 5.8
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.1 4.6 4.7
7 Josh Hart NY 15.9 8.0 6.1
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.9 2.7 3.6
9 Miles McBride NY 11.4 2.8 2.1
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.2 2.9 2.0
11 Neemias Queta BOS 11.1 9.2 1.7
12 Jordan Walsh BOS 7.7 5.4 1.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.3 3.4 1.4
14 Luka Garza BOS 6.0 3.5 0.9
15 Josh Minott BOS 5.6 3.2 1.1
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 7.5 0.9
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.9 1.7 0.9
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.9 2.8 0.8
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.7 2.1 0.8
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.7 1.2 1.6
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.1 1.6 0.8
22 Chris Boucher BOS 2.7 2.4 0.4
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 2.0 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.4 1.2 0.6
25 Amari Williams BOS 2.4 2.1 0.6
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.