NBA games

POR @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
118–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR39202336118
TOR37283224121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home TOR
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 25 8 14
Shaedon Sharpe 30 23 3 3
Toumani Camara S 36 21 6 2
Jerami Grant S 33 19 4 2
Donovan Clingan S 21 11 11 1
Robert Williams III 17 6 5 0
Caleb Love 12 5 0 1
Kris Murray 26 5 0 0
Sidy Cissoko S 22 3 2 0
Rayan Rupert 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 39 28 7 7
Immanuel Quickley S 35 23 5 8
Brandon Ingram S 35 21 6 3
Gradey Dick 17 14 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 26 11 7 4
Collin Murray-Boyles 16 10 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 6 7 2
Ja'Kobe Walter S 18 3 2 1
Jamal Shead 23 3 0 5
Ochai Agbaji 12 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
9%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
3 Deni Avdija POR
9%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Jamison Battle TOR
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
32%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.0 7.0 6.4
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.2 5.2 4.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.8 8.9 5.6
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.9 5.2 3.0
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 4.3 6.7
6 Jrue Holiday POR 18.4 4.2 7.4
7 Jerami Grant POR 18.2 4.1 3.1
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.0 9.8 2.8
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.2 5.3 2.7
10 Donovan Clingan POR 11.2 10.0 1.5
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.8 4.8 1.6
12 Caleb Love POR 8.4 2.8 1.8
13 Kris Murray POR 7.5 4.5 1.5
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 2.8 1.3
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 2.0 5.2
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 6.3 2.2 1.7
17 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.1 3.4 1.3
18 Gradey Dick TOR 6.1 2.1 1.3
19 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 5.3 0.7
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.8 1.2 0.8
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.1 2.4 0.8
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.1 1.8 0.5
23 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 1.8 0.7
24 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.5 0.7
25 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.1 0.5
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.