NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
125–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31353029125
LAL31212531108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 33 33 2 2
Collin Gillespie S 34 28 4 5
Jordan Goodwin 24 13 1 5
Mark Williams S 25 13 6 1
Devin Booker S 10 11 2 3
Jamaree Bouyea 23 7 1 5
Ryan Dunn 21 6 8 1
Royce O'Neale S 33 6 7 11
Nigel Hayes-Davis 12 4 0 1
Oso Ighodaro 21 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 38 11 5
Austin Reaves S 33 16 4 3
Dalton Knecht 16 13 4 1
Deandre Ayton S 28 12 9 1
LeBron James S 31 10 0 3
Jaxson Hayes 14 6 2 0
Maxi Kleber 10 5 3 2
Gabe Vincent 21 3 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 6 3 0 1
Jake LaRavia 16 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
19%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Devin Booker PHX
8%
6 Mark Williams PHX
8%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
17%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.3 7.2 9.2
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.0 5.9 6.1
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.1 4.7 7.0
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.3 3.6 2.3
5 LeBron James LAL 19.1 5.1 8.2
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.5 3.9 5.0
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 15.7 9.3 1.4
8 Mark Williams PHX 13.2 8.3 1.6
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.8 3.7 1.2
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.5 5.6 2.3
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.2 4.4 1.9
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.9 3.2 1.6
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.7 2.9 1.6
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.0 1.6 1.8
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.2 2.5 0.9
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.8 3.8 1.7
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 3.8 1.0
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.5 1.1 1.3
19 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.4 1.4 0.9
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 4.2 1.2
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.5 1.9 0.6
22 Nick Richards PHX 3.5 3.5 0.6
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.2 1.5 0.6
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.0 0.6
25 Adou Thiero LAL 2.5 1.1 0.5
26 Bronny James LAL 2.5 0.9 1.4
27 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.