NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
125–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU32253236125
UTAH31373035133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 32 9 5
Alperen Sengun S 38 31 8 14
Amen Thompson S 37 23 8 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 12 7 1
Aaron Holiday 33 10 2 2
Reed Sheppard S 23 9 2 2
Jae'Sean Tate 13 6 6 0
Clint Capela 9 2 3 0
Josh Okogie 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 37 29 8 0
Keyonte George S 37 28 4 8
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 18 9 2
Ace Bailey S 28 13 3 3
Kyle Filipowski 29 12 7 3
Kevin Love 15 11 5 1
Svi Mykhailiuk S 26 10 6 5
Walter Clayton Jr. 21 8 5 6
Isaiah Collier 12 3 0 4
Brice Sensabaugh 10 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes layup (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
10%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.9 8.7 7.2
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.6 4.9 5.0
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.3 6.1 2.8
4 Keyonte George UTAH 24.3 4.5 6.5
5 Reed Sheppard HOU 19.0 3.9 4.0
6 Amen Thompson HOU 17.7 7.7 5.6
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.8 7.1 2.4
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 13.2 3.7 2.1
9 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.9 9.0 5.0
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.9 2.5 2.2
11 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.8 6.5 2.1
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 9.4 2.9 1.4
13 Isaiah Collier UTAH 9.4 3.1 5.3
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.6 1.4 1.3
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 8.9 1.5
16 Josh Okogie HOU 6.4 3.2 1.2
17 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.3 2.5 3.5
18 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 5.6 1.8 3.2
19 Kevin Love UTAH 5.3 3.9 1.3
20 Jeff Green HOU 4.4 2.0 0.7
21 JD Davison HOU 4.2 1.4 1.5
22 Clint Capela HOU 3.8 5.0 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 1.5 0.6
24 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.0 2.6 0.5
25 Cody Williams UTAH 2.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.