NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
131–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27423329131
DEN41273617121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 32 13 4
Ryan Nembhard S 35 28 3 10
Cooper Flagg S 33 24 8 2
Klay Thompson 23 15 5 1
Naji Marshall S 33 9 7 6
Max Christie S 29 9 2 1
D'Angelo Russell 18 8 0 2
Dwight Powell 16 4 2 4
Brandon Williams 13 2 1 4
Caleb Martin 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 29 20 13
Spencer Jones S 39 28 5 0
Peyton Watson S 35 15 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 31 13 1 6
Cameron Johnson S 36 10 1 2
Jamal Murray S 26 10 4 9
Jonas Valanciunas 11 8 7 2
Bruce Brown 20 7 4 2
Zeke Nnaji 6 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dwight Powell DAL
15%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Cameron Johnson DEN
10%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
70%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
14%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.8 12.5 11.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.3 4.2 7.6
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 21.8 6.4 4.5
4 Anthony Davis DAL 18.8 8.0 2.7
5 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.5 4.3 2.8
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.2 5.7 2.7
7 Peyton Watson DEN 13.7 5.9 2.1
8 Brandon Williams DAL 13.4 3.3 5.8
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.7 2.4 1.5
10 Max Christie DAL 11.9 3.6 1.9
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.7 2.7 1.5
12 D'Angelo Russell DAL 10.4 2.5 3.7
13 Bruce Brown DEN 8.0 3.5 2.3
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.7 4.7 1.0
15 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.2 1.6 3.8
16 Spencer Jones DEN 5.4 2.7 1.2
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.3 1.3 0.9
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.9 3.8 0.5
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.4 1.1
20 Curtis Jones DEN 3.8 1.3 1.0
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 2.0 0.6
22 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 1.9 1.2
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 2.1 0.9
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.