NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
120–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26273235120
ORL29243240125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 36 22 9 6
Matas Buzelis S 36 21 6 4
Nikola Vucevic S 34 20 11 5
Tre Jones 30 20 1 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 37 18 3 7
Julian Phillips 21 10 3 0
Patrick Williams 18 6 6 1
Emanuel Miller 7 3 0 2
Kevin Huerter S 6 0 0 0
Jevon Carter 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 37 6 5
Franz Wagner S 32 25 6 2
Anthony Black 34 22 9 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 17 6 1
Jalen Suggs S 30 10 4 4
Goga Bitadze 18 8 5 3
Noah Penda 11 5 5 0
Jonathan Isaac 7 1 2 0
Tyus Jones 19 0 0 6
Tristan da Silva S 21 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 15-foot jumper (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane ORL 24.7 5.1 5.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.6 7.0 4.6
3 Josh Giddey CHI 20.3 9.9 8.7
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.3 4.7 5.8
5 Anthony Black ORL 17.4 3.8 4.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.5 3.3 3.1
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.4 8.0 3.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.4 7.5 3.0
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.3 3.8 3.9
10 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.7 6.2 1.6
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.4 3.4 2.2
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.8 4.6 2.0
13 Jett Howard ORL 6.8 1.5 1.0
14 Patrick Williams CHI 6.3 2.8 1.3
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 5.6 1.3
16 Jevon Carter CHI 5.5 1.6 1.1
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 3.6 0.7
18 Tyus Jones ORL 4.0 1.3 2.4
19 Noah Penda ORL 3.6 2.6 0.9
20 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.0 1.3 0.4
21 Julian Phillips CHI 2.9 1.8 0.5
22 Jase Richardson ORL 2.9 0.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.