NBA games

LAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
123–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24322641123
MIA35413826140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIA
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 36 7 2
Ivica Zubac S 31 16 13 2
Kris Dunn S 26 12 4 5
James Harden S 20 11 2 3
Kobe Sanders 26 10 4 2
John Collins S 25 10 6 2
Chris Paul 15 8 0 3
Jordan Miller 6 6 1 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 12 6 1 0
Nicolas Batum 20 6 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 30 3 3
Bam Adebayo S 32 27 14 3
Tyler Herro S 29 22 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 32 22 9 3
Davion Mitchell S 31 16 3 12
Dru Smith 16 7 0 2
Simone Fontecchio 21 7 4 2
Pelle Larsson 8 5 1 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 21 4 4 5
Myron Gardner 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 27-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
6 Norman Powell MIA
8%
7 John Collins LAC
8%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 30.2 6.6 8.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.2 5.7 3.7
3 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 6.0 3.5
4 Norman Powell MIA 23.9 3.7 3.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.2 13.0 3.3
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.2 4.9 3.7
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.7 8.2 2.8
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.3 6.5 5.8
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.8 11.0 1.4
10 John Collins LAC 12.0 5.1 1.2
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.6 3.4 4.4
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.5 3.1 6.8
13 Kris Dunn LAC 10.3 3.1 3.4
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.0 4.1 3.3
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.0 2.3 1.8
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.2 2.6 1.4
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.6 3.1 1.1
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.6 3.5 1.9
19 Jordan Miller LAC 6.3 2.2 0.8
20 Chris Paul LAC 5.1 2.2 2.9
21 Kobe Brown LAC 5.0 2.2 1.1
22 Brook Lopez LAC 4.7 1.5 0.7
23 Cam Christie LAC 4.5 1.9 0.7
24 Myron Gardner MIA 3.7 2.6 0.5
25 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.3 2.2 0.5
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.2 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.