NBA games

CHA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27322321103
BKN26332928116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BKN
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 35 18 6 4
Collin Sexton 19 15 6 2
LaMelo Ball S 30 12 5 14
Moussa Diabate 22 10 6 1
Tidjane Salaun 18 10 4 0
Antonio Reeves 15 10 2 1
Miles Bridges S 30 8 2 1
Liam McNeeley 17 8 2 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 26 7 6 1
Sion James S 28 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 35 7 4
Noah Clowney S 30 18 2 4
Nic Claxton S 33 13 11 6
Danny Wolf 19 10 7 1
Drake Powell 24 10 1 4
Egor Demin S 27 9 1 4
Ben Saraf 18 7 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 6 3 3
Tyrese Martin S 19 5 2 3
Ziaire Williams 19 3 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee CHA
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
6 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
8%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
9 Egor Demin BKN
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
64%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
21%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.5 6.9 3.5
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.0 5.3 3.5
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.4 4.8 3.4
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.7 5.5 8.2
5 Collin Sexton CHA 17.5 3.0 4.4
6 Noah Clowney BKN 15.7 3.9 2.2
7 Nic Claxton BKN 14.0 7.7 4.2
8 Egor Demin BKN 11.8 3.9 4.3
9 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.0 3.6 2.6
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.9 2.9 1.3
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.8 6.4 1.0
12 Tre Mann CHA 9.2 2.9 2.8
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.8 8.8 1.7
14 Drake Powell BKN 7.4 2.3 2.1
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.0 5.3 1.9
16 Sion James CHA 6.7 3.5 1.8
17 Danny Wolf BKN 6.3 2.5 2.2
18 Ben Saraf BKN 6.0 2.0 4.1
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.3 1.6 0.8
20 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.1 2.1 0.8
21 Tidjane Salaun CHA 3.5 2.7 0.7
22 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.9 1.6 0.5
23 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.7 0.6 0.4
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.5 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.