NBA games

MIL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
126–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL34322832126
WSH28303338129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home WSH
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 31 30 4 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 26 7 4
Gary Trent Jr. 31 14 1 0
Ryan Rollins S 30 14 2 5
AJ Green S 31 13 5 5
Bobby Portis 17 12 4 1
Myles Turner S 26 9 3 3
Jericho Sims 18 5 7 0
Kyle Kuzma 20 3 2 6
Cole Anthony 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 28 4 5
Marvin Bagley III S 29 22 8 1
Cam Whitmore 19 17 5 1
Tristan Vukcevic 20 16 2 2
Khris Middleton S 31 15 4 6
Justin Champagnie 19 10 8 2
Kyshawn George S 31 9 3 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 7 5 2
Bub Carrington 22 5 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
12%
4 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
5 Marvin Bagley III WSH
9%
6 Myles Turner MIL
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
62%
Jumper
11%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.5 11.4 6.7
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 23.1 4.8 6.8
3 CJ McCollum WSH 22.6 4.0 3.7
4 Kyshawn George WSH 16.5 5.0 5.4
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.5 5.2 3.3
6 Myles Turner MIL 14.4 6.0 1.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 5.8 1.7
8 AJ Green MIL 11.8 3.3 2.4
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.0 4.0 3.4
10 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 10.7 2.7 4.6
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.3 1.9 1.9
12 Khris Middleton WSH 9.9 3.9 3.8
13 Cam Whitmore WSH 9.7 3.1 1.2
14 Bub Carrington WSH 8.4 3.0 4.1
15 Cole Anthony MIL 6.7 2.8 4.2
16 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.4 3.8 1.0
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.2 2.6 1.1
18 Jericho Sims MIL 4.3 3.9 1.2
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.8 3.4 0.9
20 Malaki Branham WSH 3.8 1.5 0.7
21 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.3 2.2 0.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.3 1.5 1.4
23 Amir Coffey MIL 3.1 1.4 0.8
24 Will Riley WSH 2.8 1.7 0.9
25 Jamir Watkins WSH 2.5 1.7 0.3
26 AJ Johnson WSH 2.2 1.2 0.6
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.