NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
135–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE37293336135
IND25293629119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 43 9 6
Jaylon Tyson S 31 27 11 4
Evan Mobley S 28 13 5 5
De'Andre Hunter S 28 13 3 4
Tyrese Proctor 22 12 2 0
Dean Wade S 26 9 2 3
Thomas Bryant 12 6 2 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 27 6 6 1
Craig Porter Jr. 22 4 5 3
Luke Travers 9 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 26 7 2
Andrew Nembhard S 33 21 4 6
Garrison Mathews 25 15 1 1
Jay Huff S 26 15 3 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 22 11 4 1
Jarace Walker S 29 7 5 3
Tony Bradley 7 6 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 16 6 3 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 17 5 5 0
T.J. McConnell 6 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
21%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 30.0 6.3 6.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.2 6.8 3.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.3 5.5 2.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.7 10.1 4.1
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.7 2.8 6.5
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.2 4.3 2.9
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.4 5.5 2.0
8 Jarace Walker IND 9.8 4.7 1.6
9 T.J. McConnell IND 9.7 3.2 4.5
10 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.8 6.0 1.2
11 Jay Huff IND 8.5 4.1 1.3
12 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.8 3.5 0.9
13 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.5 4.3 4.7
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.9 3.3 1.8
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 3.2 2.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 4.2 1.5
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 6.6 1.8 1.6
18 Ethan Thompson IND 6.4 2.1 2.0
19 Chris Livingston CLE 6.3 2.1 0.6
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.9 4.2 1.1
21 Garrison Mathews IND 5.0 1.3 0.9
22 Tony Bradley IND 4.8 2.3 0.9
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.4 2.0 0.5
24 Taelon Peter IND 3.3 1.7 1.2
25 Luke Travers CLE 2.6 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.