NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
98–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2722193098
DET2525242599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 29 13 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 26 3 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 20 6 4
Dyson Daniels S 37 10 5 5
Luke Kennard 17 5 1 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 4 1 1
Vit Krejci 17 3 2 1
Mouhamed Gueye 23 1 1 0
Keaton Wallace 16 0 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 32 21 11 0
Cade Cunningham S 38 18 8 8
Ronald Holland II 17 17 6 0
Caris LeVert 25 14 2 1
Tobias Harris S 26 9 7 1
Ausar Thompson S 30 8 7 1
Daniss Jenkins S 27 6 8 6
Isaiah Stewart 25 6 10 0
Javonte Green 6 0 1 0
Jaden Ivey 14 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 12-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
17%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
9%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
13%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.8 7.1 10.2
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.0 10.7 8.1
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 4.5 4.2
4 Jalen Duren DET 22.1 12.0 3.1
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 21.7 6.2 3.7
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.0 6.2 3.1
7 Tobias Harris DET 16.9 4.7 2.7
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.3 7.3 6.1
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 13.2 3.1 5.3
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.6 5.3 2.7
11 Caris LeVert DET 11.5 2.5 3.6
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.2 3.6 1.6
13 Vit Krejci ATL 10.3 2.7 2.2
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.6 5.8 1.4
15 Javonte Green DET 8.4 3.8 1.3
16 Paul Reed DET 8.1 5.6 1.6
17 Jaden Ivey DET 7.8 2.0 1.1
18 Luke Kennard ATL 6.9 1.8 2.4
19 Ronald Holland II DET 6.4 2.8 1.8
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.7 1.0
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.4 1.7 2.1
22 Chaz Lanier DET 3.4 1.1 0.7
23 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.1 0.9 0.4
24 Asa Newell ATL 2.8 1.1 0.3
25 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.4 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.