NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
121133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO27303529121
LAL46313125133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bryce McGowens S 33 23 7 5
Saddiq Bey S 33 22 11 3
Jeremiah Fears S 27 21 2 3
Derik Queen S 28 15 7 3
Micah Peavy 30 13 2 1
Jose Alvarado 28 12 0 2
Trey Alexander 21 7 2 3
Kevon Looney 15 6 3 2
Yves Missi S 24 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 34 12 7
Austin Reaves S 40 33 5 8
Deandre Ayton S 27 22 12 1
Rui Hachimura S 34 14 2 0
Jake LaRavia 26 10 5 2
Jaxson Hayes 21 8 6 2
Gabe Vincent S 25 6 2 4
Dalton Knecht 17 4 1 2
Maxi Kleber 13 2 1 0
Adou Thiero 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
21%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
14%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
4 Derik Queen NO
12%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
8 Bryce McGowens NO
8%
9 Yves Missi NO
0%
10 Kevon Looney NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
12%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.2 7.0 10.1
2 Austin Reaves LAL 26.6 5.8 6.0
3 Deandre Ayton LAL 17.4 9.4 1.6
4 Jeremiah Fears NO 16.8 4.2 2.8
5 Derik Queen NO 16.2 7.1 4.9
6 Saddiq Bey NO 14.8 6.7 2.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.6 4.1 1.4
8 Jose Alvarado NO 10.7 3.1 3.3
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.5 2.7 3.4
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.0 3.3 1.7
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.6 1.7 2.0
12 Micah Peavy NO 6.1 2.7 1.3
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.9 3.9 1.0
14 Yves Missi NO 5.7 5.4 1.1
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.2 2.1 0.7
16 Hunter Dickinson NO 5.1 2.8 1.1
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 1.5 0.9
18 Bryce McGowens NO 4.9 1.8 0.9
19 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.8 1.1 1.4
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 4.3 1.3
21 Kevon Looney NO 3.8 3.8 1.2
22 Trey Alexander NO 3.4 1.5 0.7
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.1 0.7
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.2 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.