NBA games

MEM @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
115–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31312132115
SAC35242820107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SAC
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Edey S 29 32 17 0
Cam Spencer 21 16 0 3
Jaylen Wells S 30 15 3 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 13 6 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 20 13 3 3
Cedric Coward S 29 10 7 2
Santi Aldama 22 7 6 4
Jock Landale 17 5 5 3
John Konchar 12 2 3 0
Vince Williams Jr. S 27 2 2 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 23 1 4
Malik Monk 34 21 6 6
Zach LaVine S 35 19 3 3
Keegan Murray S 36 12 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 24 11 7 0
Maxime Raynaud 23 9 6 3
Nique Clifford 13 5 1 0
Drew Eubanks S 15 4 2 0
Russell Westbrook S 20 3 6 7
Keon Ellis 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Drew Eubanks · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Drew Eubanks makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
8 Drew Eubanks SAC
9%
9 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
10 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 19.5 3.5 3.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.4 5.3 2.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.4 3.3 3.6
4 Santi Aldama MEM 17.3 7.0 3.7
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.4 6.9 1.8
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 15.3 7.5 8.0
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.3 3.4 2.2
8 Cedric Coward MEM 13.2 5.8 3.0
9 Zach Edey MEM 11.9 10.8 1.4
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 11.2 5.7 7.0
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.1 5.6 1.7
12 Cam Spencer MEM 10.5 2.6 3.9
13 Malik Monk SAC 10.4 2.3 1.9
14 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.3 4.8 1.5
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.8 2.4 2.5
16 Maxime Raynaud SAC 6.5 3.5 0.8
17 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.9 3.9 0.8
18 Keon Ellis SAC 5.7 1.8 0.8
19 Dario Saric SAC 5.4 2.0 0.7
20 Nique Clifford SAC 4.2 2.1 1.2
21 John Konchar MEM 3.6 3.0 1.4
22 GG Jackson MEM 3.6 1.7 0.4
23 Devin Carter SAC 2.1 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.