NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
112–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA37253119112
MIN32292836125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 25 2 4
Keldon Johnson 26 22 8 2
Devin Vassell S 32 22 1 3
Dylan Harper 20 17 0 0
Kelly Olynyk 14 7 5 1
Luke Kornet S 24 6 4 3
Julian Champagnie S 25 5 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 29 5 5 0
Jeremy Sochan 12 2 1 0
Bismack Biyombo 2 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 32 3 6
Julius Randle S 36 22 6 12
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 18 5 4
Naz Reid 30 15 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 13 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 24 8 8 2
Jaylen Clark 11 8 0 0
Mike Conley 17 5 3 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 12 4 0 1
Bones Hyland 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Luke Kornet SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
9%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.1 5.0 5.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.1 4.5 6.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.0 7.7 5.7
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.7 5.6 3.1
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.6 3.9 2.2
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.2 6.2 2.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.7 3.9 3.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 7.7 2.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 10.9 2.1
10 Harrison Barnes SA 12.8 3.7 2.1
11 Dylan Harper SA 11.9 3.3 3.9
12 Julian Champagnie SA 11.6 4.6 1.6
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.8 6.6 1.6
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.5 1.9 2.5
15 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.9 3.4 1.7
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.9 2.1 1.2
17 Kelly Olynyk SA 5.0 2.4 1.7
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 2.4 0.7
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.3 1.7 1.7
20 David Jones Garcia SA 3.8 1.7 1.3
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.7 1.5 0.7
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 1.8 0.6
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Bones Hyland MIN 3.1 1.1 1.1
25 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.0 1.1 0.4
26 Joan Beringer MIN 2.4 1.4 0.3
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.4 1.3
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.