NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
123–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC24303138123
POR19363228115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 26 4 5
Chet Holmgren S 30 19 9 1
Ajay Mitchell 29 17 5 5
Jalen Williams S 34 16 8 5
Isaiah Joe 15 15 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 28 10 6 2
Kenrich Williams 13 8 3 0
Aaron Wiggins 20 5 1 4
Jaylin Williams 14 4 6 1
Cason Wallace S 21 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 31 19 10
Toumani Camara S 38 19 8 4
Jerami Grant S 34 18 3 2
Kris Murray S 35 13 6 2
Caleb Love 19 12 0 1
Robert Williams III 19 7 9 1
Shaedon Sharpe 22 7 1 1
Sidy Cissoko S 21 5 2 1
Rayan Rupert 6 3 0 0
Yang Hansen 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Sidy Cissoko POR
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
31%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 4.8 7.6
2 Deni Avdija POR 25.4 6.0 6.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 5.7 3.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.9 7.4 2.2
5 Jrue Holiday POR 18.3 4.3 7.5
6 Jerami Grant POR 18.1 4.0 3.1
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.5 3.7 3.6
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.4 3.3 2.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 11.8 5.3 2.5
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.2 2.7 2.0
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.8 2.7 2.2
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.3 1.2
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.6 3.8 2.5
14 Caleb Love POR 7.4 2.8 2.0
15 Kris Murray POR 6.4 4.3 1.3
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.7 2.1 1.7
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.8 1.2 0.8
18 Robert Williams III POR 4.7 4.6 0.6
19 Branden Carlson OKC 3.9 2.2 0.7
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.6 1.8 0.8
21 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.1 0.5
22 Yang Hansen POR 2.6 1.7 0.7
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.9 0.6
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.2 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.