NBA games

ATL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
142–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
ATL253226321116142
PHI29293126118134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHI
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 45 41 14 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 44 34 8 7
Dyson Daniels S 44 17 9 8
Mouhamed Gueye 23 13 4 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 12 2 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 47 10 13 6
Keaton Wallace 14 8 1 2
Vit Krejci 26 5 5 1
Luke Kennard 15 2 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 52 44 7 9
Quentin Grimes 47 28 10 4
Joel Embiid S 30 18 4 2
Paul George S 28 16 7 4
Dominick Barlow S 45 10 6 3
VJ Edgecombe S 21 7 2 2
Jared McCain 29 5 4 1
Adem Bona 22 4 3 0
Andre Drummond 6 2 1 0
Justin Edwards 10 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
9%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
4%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.5 4.5 6.9
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.8 10.7 9.0
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.8 4.1 4.1
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 20.9 5.8 3.6
5 Joel Embiid PHI 20.3 5.4 4.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.9 6.3 3.2
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.4 3.4 4.4
8 Paul George PHI 14.2 4.3 3.6
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.5 5.7 3.5
10 Vit Krejci ATL 11.7 2.6 2.3
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.6 3.5 2.0
12 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 6.7 6.2
13 Andre Drummond PHI 11.3 10.2 1.3
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.9 5.5 2.0
15 Justin Edwards PHI 8.8 2.8 2.0
16 Luke Kennard ATL 7.0 1.9 2.2
17 Jared McCain PHI 6.7 1.7 1.2
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.3 1.8 2.5
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.5 3.5 1.0
20 Jabari Walker PHI 4.6 2.8 1.0
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 4.2 0.6
22 Johni Broome PHI 3.6 2.5 0.6
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.4 0.8 0.7
24 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.3 1.0 0.4
25 Asa Newell ATL 2.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.