NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
94–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2230251794
NY41183423116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 35 19 2 8
Scottie Barnes S 32 18 5 4
Brandon Ingram S 32 14 1 4
Collin Murray-Boyles 22 11 8 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 27 9 7 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 21 7 4 1
Ochai Agbaji 17 6 5 1
Jamison Battle S 11 4 1 0
Jamal Shead 17 2 1 5
Gradey Dick 18 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 22 8 2
Josh Hart S 35 20 12 7
Jalen Brunson S 34 18 6 7
Mikal Bridges S 33 14 3 3
Miles McBride S 35 14 5 2
Jordan Clarkson 21 13 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele 10 7 4 1
Tyler Kolek 14 6 2 3
Mitchell Robinson 17 2 15 0
Ariel Hukporti 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja'Kobe Walter · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Ja'Kobe Walter makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
14%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
8%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.4 3.2 6.8
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.7 5.8 4.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.6 10.7 3.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 9.4 5.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.9 4.7 6.3
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.1 4.5 3.5
7 Josh Hart NY 14.4 7.3 5.7
8 Miles McBride NY 11.8 2.6 2.3
9 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.2 2.7 2.0
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.3 4.3 1.5
11 Chucky Hepburn TOR 6.9 1.2 2.4
12 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.9 4.9
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.5 2.5 1.1
14 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.1 1.2
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.3 2.8 1.0
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.7 7.0 0.8
17 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.7 2.0 0.8
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.5 1.9 0.6
19 Tyler Kolek NY 3.5 1.2 1.3
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.1 0.5
21 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.2 1.4 0.7
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.9 0.9 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.1 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.8 0.3
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.3 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.