NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
117–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28303227117
CLE26252836115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 31 42 3 3
Jaylen Brown S 38 19 12 11
Anfernee Simons 27 18 1 2
Jordan Walsh S 38 14 11 1
Xavier Tillman S 30 9 6 0
Sam Hauser S 35 7 5 2
Baylor Scheierman 15 5 2 0
Hugo Gonzalez 7 3 0 0
Josh Minott 13 0 4 0
Amari Williams 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 39 27 14 4
Darius Garland S 31 21 3 8
Donovan Mitchell S 39 18 7 8
Jaylon Tyson S 34 17 5 1
Tyrese Proctor 11 8 1 4
De'Andre Hunter S 27 8 3 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 22 7 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 11 4 4 2
Dean Wade 20 3 2 0
Thomas Bryant 6 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
19%
2 Darius Garland CLE
17%
3 De'Andre Hunter CLE
16%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
6 Jordan Walsh BOS
10%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Anfernee Simons BOS
0%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
0%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
13%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.5 7.5 6.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.1 6.0 6.4
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.1 9.2 4.2
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.5 4.5 4.9
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.4 4.4 3.2
6 Darius Garland CLE 15.7 3.2 6.4
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.8 2.9 3.7
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.2 5.2 2.1
9 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.4 3.2 0.9
10 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.3 4.1 4.7
11 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.7 5.0 1.5
12 Luka Garza BOS 6.5 3.7 0.9
13 Josh Minott BOS 6.3 3.6 1.2
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.2 3.6 1.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 4.0 1.5
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.7 2.0 0.9
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 2.3 2.0
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.5 1.2 1.0
19 Chris Boucher BOS 2.9 2.7 0.4
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.7 1.4 0.6
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.6 0.8 0.6
22 Max Shulga BOS 2.6 1.4 0.7
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.9 0.7
24 Luke Travers CLE 2.4 1.8 0.7
25 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.0 1.4 0.3
26 Amari Williams BOS 1.7 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.