NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
129–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU30373131129
UTAH21272033101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 28 27 4 5
Kevin Durant S 30 25 7 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 15 2 3
Steven Adams 17 13 12 2
Aaron Holiday 20 11 1 2
Reed Sheppard S 31 9 6 4
Jae'Sean Tate 10 7 2 1
Josh Okogie 20 7 5 0
Clint Capela 14 6 3 0
Amen Thompson S 31 5 8 9
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ace Bailey S 31 19 2 1
Lauri Markkanen S 30 18 8 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 14 6 9
Kyle Filipowski 31 12 8 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 25 11 1 1
Brice Sensabaugh 24 10 3 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 18 8 2 5
Kyle Anderson 25 7 0 3
Isaiah Collier 17 2 2 4
Keyonte George S 19 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
8 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
35%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 25.0 4.5 6.5
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.6 4.6 4.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 10.4 7.1
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.4 5.7 2.8
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.1 7.8 5.4
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 18.0 3.4 3.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.1 7.3 2.3
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.5 3.9 2.2
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.4 2.9 5.4
10 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.8 9.0 4.5
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.6 2.5 2.4
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.2 6.1 1.9
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.7 2.7 1.5
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.2 1.3 1.3
15 Josh Okogie HOU 6.2 2.8 1.3
16 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 8.2 1.3
17 Kevin Love UTAH 5.5 3.9 1.4
18 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 5.4 1.7 2.9
19 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.3 2.3 3.3
20 JD Davison HOU 4.1 1.4 1.7
21 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.8 0.5
22 Clint Capela HOU 3.2 5.4 0.6
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.