NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25243431114
LAC28282727110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 38 35 8 2
Klay Thompson 26 23 3 1
Naji Marshall S 37 18 8 3
Brandon Williams 26 14 1 7
Dwight Powell S 34 9 5 3
Ryan Nembhard S 21 8 1 3
Moussa Cisse 14 4 2 0
Max Christie S 20 3 2 1
Jaden Hardy 3 0 0 0
Caleb Martin 21 0 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 30 8 3
James Harden S 37 29 8 11
John Collins S 36 21 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 38 19 11 4
Kris Dunn S 33 6 3 2
Kobe Brown 19 5 4 0
Kobe Sanders 9 0 2 1
Chris Paul 11 0 2 3
Nicolas Batum 28 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 15-foot layup (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
17%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
6 John Collins LAC
9%
7 Ryan Nembhard DAL
9%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Max Christie DAL
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 29.9 6.4 9.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.4 5.2 3.5
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.1 13.0 3.0
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 19.8 6.6 4.7
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.0 7.4 2.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 14.5 3.8 5.2
7 Naji Marshall DAL 13.7 5.8 2.6
8 Max Christie DAL 12.4 4.2 2.2
9 John Collins LAC 11.0 5.2 1.0
10 Klay Thompson DAL 10.8 2.5 1.5
11 D'Angelo Russell DAL 10.5 2.7 3.8
12 Kris Dunn LAC 10.5 3.1 3.0
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.8 2.2 1.6
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.6 3.2 0.9
15 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.0 1.8 3.5
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 1.9 0.9
17 Chris Paul LAC 5.1 2.2 3.0
18 Cam Christie LAC 4.9 2.2 0.9
19 Brook Lopez LAC 4.8 1.6 0.6
20 Kobe Brown LAC 4.5 1.9 1.0
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.7 2.6 0.6
22 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.1 4.2 0.4
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 1.8 0.6
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 2.0 1.0
25 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.