NBA games

DEN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
130–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30333334130
PHX25352527112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHX
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 31 26 9 10
Jamal Murray S 37 24 3 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 23 3 0
Spencer Jones S 27 16 9 1
Cameron Johnson S 35 15 4 4
Peyton Watson S 28 11 5 3
Jonas Valanciunas 15 9 3 3
Bruce Brown 27 4 2 10
Zeke Nnaji 8 2 0 0
Jalen Pickett 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 28 27 3 2
Devin Booker S 35 24 4 7
Royce O'Neale S 29 15 6 1
Collin Gillespie 29 12 0 2
Grayson Allen S 26 10 1 3
Oso Ighodaro S 32 8 8 3
Jordan Goodwin 15 8 2 1
Rasheer Fleming 4 5 0 0
Jamaree Bouyea 15 3 2 3
Nigel Hayes-Davis 13 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes two point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
32%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.1 11.2 10.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.4 4.1 7.3
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.3 4.5 7.0
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.6 3.9 2.3
5 Grayson Allen PHX 18.0 3.1 4.3
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.6 4.0 5.3
7 Peyton Watson DEN 13.2 5.9 1.8
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.8 3.8 2.5
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.3 5.9 2.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.6 2.5 1.5
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 4.5 2.0
12 Bruce Brown DEN 7.4 3.7 1.4
13 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.0 4.5 0.9
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.8 3.8 1.8
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.9 1.5 0.9
16 Spencer Jones DEN 4.3 1.8 1.0
17 Curtis Jones DEN 3.8 1.3 1.1
18 Nick Richards PHX 3.8 3.7 0.8
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 2.1 0.5
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.1 1.6 0.5
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.7 1.6 0.5
22 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.6 1.4 0.7
23 Koby Brea PHX 2.6 0.7 1.4
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 0.7 0.7
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.