NBA games

NO @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
96104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO1820342496
GS17253131104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home GS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 31 25 7 4
Saddiq Bey S 38 21 7 3
Jeremiah Fears S 36 16 6 2
Yves Missi 20 9 10 0
Micah Peavy 32 7 5 1
Jose Alvarado 31 7 3 4
Bryce McGowens S 26 5 4 1
Kevon Looney 10 4 5 1
Derik Queen S 16 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 24 8 10
Gary Payton II 25 19 11 3
Brandin Podziemski S 33 15 5 6
Moses Moody S 27 11 3 0
Jonathan Kuminga 19 10 1 2
Buddy Hield 17 8 4 0
Quinten Post S 17 8 2 2
Pat Spencer 15 4 2 1
Will Richard 20 3 2 0
Draymond Green S 31 2 9 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
20%
2 Derik Queen NO
14%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
13%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Will Richard GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Jose Alvarado NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
29%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.0 6.5 4.7
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.7 6.1 5.8
3 Trey Murphy III NO 22.1 5.7 3.7
4 Derik Queen NO 17.5 7.8 5.3
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.4 4.2 2.8
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.9 5.9 2.9
7 Saddiq Bey NO 13.6 6.4 3.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.5 4.3 2.7
9 Moses Moody GS 13.0 3.8 2.0
10 Draymond Green GS 10.7 5.9 6.1
11 Jose Alvarado NO 10.4 3.2 3.3
12 Will Richard GS 8.3 2.9 1.3
13 Quinten Post GS 7.7 3.8 1.6
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.2 2.6 1.8
15 Pat Spencer GS 6.1 2.1 2.9
16 Yves Missi NO 5.6 5.1 1.1
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.5 1.8 1.1
18 Micah Peavy NO 5.4 2.5 1.2
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.1 3.5 1.9
20 Bryce McGowens NO 4.1 1.4 0.8
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.0 3.3 0.8
22 Gui Santos GS 4.0 2.1 0.9
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.7 3.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.