NBA games

BKN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
99–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2924172999
MIL32392817116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Danny Wolf 30 22 4 4
Jalen Wilson 16 13 3 2
Ziaire Williams S 19 10 2 1
Ben Saraf 29 10 0 7
Tyrese Martin S 24 9 6 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 23 7 7 2
Nic Claxton S 25 7 4 3
Tyson Etienne 5 6 0 0
Noah Clowney S 21 6 1 1
Terance Mann S 21 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 19 29 8 2
AJ Green S 23 15 3 5
Bobby Portis 21 13 6 0
Kevin Porter Jr. S 25 13 4 6
Kyle Kuzma 22 11 1 3
Myles Turner S 22 10 3 2
Ryan Rollins S 31 10 2 4
Gary Trent Jr. 25 5 2 1
Amir Coffey 4 2 0 0
Jericho Sims 23 2 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Martin · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Tyrese Martin makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
12%
4 Myles Turner MIL
10%
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
9%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
7 Terance Mann BKN
8%
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
9%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.6 10.8 6.9
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 22.2 4.9 6.7
3 Noah Clowney BKN 16.3 4.0 2.1
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.5 5.1 3.0
5 Nic Claxton BKN 14.7 8.5 4.1
6 Myles Turner MIL 14.0 6.0 1.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.6 5.7 1.5
8 AJ Green MIL 11.0 3.4 2.0
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 1.7 1.7
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 3.1 1.3
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.5 3.2 2.7
12 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.5 1.9 3.8
13 Terance Mann BKN 8.7 3.4 3.9
14 Drake Powell BKN 8.2 2.5 2.3
15 Cole Anthony MIL 6.6 2.9 4.2
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 5.3 1.8
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.9 1.4 0.7
18 Danny Wolf BKN 4.7 2.3 1.9
19 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 1.6 1.2
20 Ben Saraf BKN 4.4 1.4 3.1
21 Jericho Sims MIL 3.0 2.8 0.9
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 0.9 1.1
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.1 0.3
24 Amir Coffey MIL 1.9 0.9 0.5
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 1.8 1.1 0.3
26 Tyson Etienne BKN 1.7 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.