NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
138–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36353730138
MIA23363244135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 29 4 8
Tobias Harris S 31 26 4 2
Duncan Robinson S 32 18 5 5
Paul Reed 19 13 10 2
Ronald Holland II 23 10 0 3
Ausar Thompson S 30 10 8 3
Isaiah Stewart S 29 9 8 1
Jaden Ivey 14 9 2 1
Daniss Jenkins 15 9 1 4
Javonte Green 8 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 37 31 6 4
Norman Powell S 33 28 2 3
Tyler Herro S 32 24 4 2
Bam Adebayo S 33 15 10 1
Kel'el Ware 22 12 7 0
Dru Smith 16 9 5 4
Davion Mitchell S 32 7 1 10
Pelle Larsson 25 7 1 2
Nikola Jovic 10 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
18%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
4 Tobias Harris DET
13%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Caris LeVert DET
0%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.6 7.1 9.3
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.9 3.7 2.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.4 7.6 2.9
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.7 4.7 3.5
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.6 6.4 5.8
6 Tobias Harris DET 15.2 5.2 2.9
7 Duncan Robinson DET 13.9 3.3 2.5
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.9 10.6 1.3
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.9 5.8 2.6
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.7 3.3 4.5
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 12.2 3.1 4.9
12 Caris LeVert DET 11.9 2.7 3.7
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.8 3.0 6.6
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.0 6.5 1.6
15 Javonte Green DET 9.6 4.2 1.5
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.8 2.7 1.7
17 Jaden Ivey DET 7.6 2.1 1.2
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 3.1 2.9
19 Ronald Holland II DET 7.0 3.3 1.8
20 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 3.3 2.1
21 Paul Reed DET 6.7 4.8 1.4
22 Chaz Lanier DET 3.6 1.2 0.8
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.4 2.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.