NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
101–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI27272621101
IND26352517103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 34 17 11 7
Tre Jones 29 17 1 2
Nikola Vucevic S 30 16 8 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 15 4 4
Kevin Huerter S 32 15 3 1
Matas Buzelis S 34 8 11 2
Emanuel Miller 7 6 1 0
Jevon Carter 11 3 1 2
Patrick Williams 17 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 24 9 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 38 19 6 3
Jay Huff S 25 14 8 2
Andrew Nembhard S 32 14 1 6
Isaiah Jackson 23 14 11 1
T.J. McConnell 25 8 3 6
Ben Sheppard S 22 6 2 0
Jarace Walker 20 4 2 1
Garrison Mathews 8 0 0 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
9%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Jarace Walker IND
8%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.5 6.7 4.1
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 23.4 5.5 2.9
3 Josh Giddey CHI 23.0 10.5 9.6
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 21.1 2.9 7.0
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.9 3.4 3.1
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.9 8.0 3.4
7 Tre Jones CHI 13.8 4.0 4.6
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.8 5.9 1.7
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.3 3.6 2.7
10 Jarace Walker IND 11.6 4.9 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.8 3.3 4.5
12 Jay Huff IND 9.2 4.6 1.4
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 9.2 6.1 1.4
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.1 3.2 1.4
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 3.7 2.0
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 7.0 5.4 1.4
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.3 1.6 1.2
18 Garrison Mathews IND 5.5 1.4 1.1
19 Tony Bradley IND 5.3 2.8 1.1
20 RayJ Dennis IND 4.0 1.7 1.2
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.7 2.3 0.6
22 Taelon Peter IND 3.6 1.9 1.4
23 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.8 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.