NBA games

TOR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR342429177111
CHA2131282414118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHA
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 39 30 12 5
Immanuel Quickley S 37 22 3 10
Brandon Ingram S 40 22 6 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 13 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 33 8 11 9
Gradey Dick 18 5 2 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 27 5 7 0
Jamal Shead 23 3 3 2
Ochai Agbaji 16 2 1 1
Collin Murray-Boyles 13 1 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 41 35 3 0
Kon Knueppel S 37 20 6 4
Collin Sexton 33 18 1 5
LaMelo Ball S 22 14 2 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 22 8 6 2
Brandon Miller S 25 7 2 3
Liam McNeeley 13 7 3 0
Moussa Diabate 30 7 9 2
Sion James 30 2 6 2
Tre Mann 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee CHA
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
69%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
16%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.5 6.0 4.2
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 5.7 3.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 8.7 5.4
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.0 6.5 8.4
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.8 5.2 3.9
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.8 5.1 6.2
7 Brandon Miller CHA 18.2 2.7 3.9
8 Collin Sexton CHA 17.5 2.9 4.0
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.4 9.4 2.0
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.4 4.4 1.7
11 Tre Mann CHA 10.4 3.1 2.9
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.9 6.8 1.0
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.8 8.4 1.6
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.2 1.9 5.4
15 Sion James CHA 7.0 3.1 1.8
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.3 3.0 1.3
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 1.8 1.0
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.9 1.2
19 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.7 2.0 0.8
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.0 1.3 0.6
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.5 1.7 0.7
22 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.3 0.5 0.4
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.9 0.4
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.5 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.