NBA games

BOS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36332323115
MIN32273525119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 41 6 7
Neemias Queta S 29 19 18 0
Derrick White S 39 16 1 5
Sam Hauser 30 14 6 4
Payton Pritchard S 31 9 5 4
Josh Minott 16 5 4 0
Anfernee Simons 18 5 1 1
Baylor Scheierman 14 3 0 2
Luka Garza 5 3 0 1
Jordan Walsh S 20 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 39 2 5
Julius Randle S 32 16 9 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 15 3 8
Rudy Gobert S 30 12 8 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 17 10 0 0
Naz Reid 28 10 8 2
Jaden McDaniels S 26 8 4 3
Mike Conley 17 6 2 2
Rob Dillingham 6 3 0 2
Jaylen Clark 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 8-foot two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
7%
10 Luka Garza BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
7%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.9 7.2 5.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.6 5.5 4.7
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.4 7.7 6.0
4 Derrick White BOS 18.5 4.6 5.7
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.2 4.3 4.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 5.5 3.0
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.4 5.9 2.4
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.0 2.9 3.5
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.9 4.0 2.8
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 10.7 1.9
11 Neemias Queta BOS 9.6 8.1 1.4
12 Josh Minott BOS 7.2 3.4 1.2
13 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.6 5.3 1.4
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.2 1.8 2.4
15 Luka Garza BOS 5.9 3.7 0.8
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.9 2.2 1.5
17 Sam Hauser BOS 4.9 2.9 1.3
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 2.3 0.7
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.4 1.6 1.4
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.2 1.6 0.7
21 Chris Boucher BOS 3.0 2.6 0.3
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.9 1.5 0.7
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.9 1.0 0.4
25 Bones Hyland MIN 2.9 1.0 1.1
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.9 0.6
27 Joan Beringer MIN 2.2 1.3 0.3
28 Amari Williams BOS 2.0 2.0 0.5
29 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.3 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.