NBA games

MIN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
112–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN2727281911112
SAC2323312416117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SAC
92% 8%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 43 7 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 17 4 1
Julius Randle S 39 17 10 5
Naz Reid 23 15 7 0
Rudy Gobert S 41 11 13 1
Jaden McDaniels S 37 6 8 2
Mike Conley 25 3 2 5
Jaylen Clark 6 0 3 0
Rob Dillingham 9 0 0 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 32 33 0 4
Keegan Murray S 44 26 14 2
Malik Monk 26 22 2 2
Precious Achiuwa 34 10 8 0
Zach LaVine S 32 7 3 1
Russell Westbrook S 29 7 7 7
Dennis Schroder 24 6 5 9
Nique Clifford 12 3 6 1
Drew Eubanks S 13 2 2 1
Maxime Raynaud 14 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
8 Drew Eubanks SAC
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
48%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 25.5 7.9 6.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 4.7 4.4
3 Zach LaVine SAC 18.5 3.8 3.2
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.7 5.2 3.6
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.0 3.4 3.4
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.5 7.4 7.3
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.8 6.0 2.6
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.1 4.4 3.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.2 11.5 2.0
10 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.5 3.7 5.1
11 Keegan Murray SAC 12.0 4.5 1.2
12 Malik Monk SAC 11.2 2.6 1.9
13 Drew Eubanks SAC 8.2 3.7 0.9
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.5 1.8 3.2
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.2 4.5 1.1
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.7 2.4 1.7
17 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.6 3.4 0.7
18 Nique Clifford SAC 5.6 2.2 1.8
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 2.7 0.9
20 Keon Ellis SAC 5.1 1.7 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.8 1.7 1.6
22 Dario Saric SAC 3.8 1.4 0.4
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 1.6 0.8
24 Bones Hyland MIN 3.6 1.4 1.2
25 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.5 1.3 0.5
26 Joan Beringer MIN 2.8 1.9 0.4
27 Devin Carter SAC 2.0 1.1 1.0
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.5 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.