NBA games

HOU @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
114–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU30292530114
PHX2327251792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHX
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 37 28 7 8
Aaron Holiday 27 22 1 2
Alperen Sengun S 35 18 5 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 17 7 1
Josh Okogie S 30 9 6 1
Reed Sheppard S 27 7 1 5
Steven Adams 16 6 7 0
JD Davison 18 5 1 4
Clint Capela 13 2 5 0
Isaiah Crawford 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 32 29 3 0
Devin Booker S 38 18 3 5
Collin Gillespie 29 16 3 2
Royce O'Neale S 33 12 5 1
Jordan Goodwin S 27 7 4 0
Nick Richards S 22 4 11 0
Jamaree Bouyea 3 3 0 0
Oso Ighodaro 20 2 2 3
Nigel Hayes-Davis 3 1 0 0
Khaman Maluach 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Richards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Nick Richards makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
17%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Steven Adams HOU
9%
7 Jordan Goodwin PHX
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
9 Isaiah Crawford HOU
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.0 4.5 6.8
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.7 10.5 6.8
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.4 3.5 2.7
4 Amen Thompson HOU 19.5 6.6 5.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.6 6.9 2.2
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.9 2.7 2.8
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.8 4.3 4.6
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.5 4.4 2.3
9 Tari Eason HOU 9.7 4.0 1.7
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.0 4.5 2.1
11 Isaiah Crawford HOU 7.7 4.0 1.2
12 Josh Okogie HOU 5.9 2.3 1.2
13 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 7.4 1.5
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.1 1.1
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.6 3.4 1.5
16 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.0 2.1 0.7
17 JD Davison HOU 3.7 0.8 1.2
18 Nick Richards PHX 3.6 3.3 0.7
19 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.5 0.3
20 Clint Capela HOU 2.9 4.4 0.5
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.8 1.5 0.4
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.4 1.4 0.4
23 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 2.3 0.9 0.8
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.