NBA games

CHI @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
130–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30283537130
NO37373435143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NO
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 28 2 1
Coby White S 35 24 5 6
Josh Giddey S 35 21 7 6
Jalen Smith 26 13 6 1
Jevon Carter 18 11 1 1
Matas Buzelis S 21 10 4 0
Tre Jones 28 10 2 11
Julian Phillips 15 7 2 1
Patrick Williams S 27 6 4 2
Noa Essengue 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 30 29 1 2
Saddiq Bey S 34 20 13 3
Trey Murphy III S 36 20 4 4
Jose Alvarado 32 16 8 8
Jeremiah Fears S 24 15 4 3
Yves Missi 29 14 14 0
Bryce McGowens 18 11 3 2
Micah Peavy 20 10 3 2
Derik Queen S 17 8 5 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
17%
2 Derik Queen NO
12%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
9 Micah Peavy NO
8%
10 Coby White CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 25.7 3.5 7.4
2 Trey Murphy III NO 25.4 6.7 3.8
3 Josh Giddey CHI 23.9 10.7 10.0
4 Zion Williamson NO 21.7 7.2 5.2
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 19.8 4.6 3.2
6 Derik Queen NO 19.0 8.6 5.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.6 3.4 3.8
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.4 6.3 1.9
9 Saddiq Bey NO 14.1 5.8 2.9
10 Tre Jones CHI 13.1 4.0 4.0
11 Jalen Smith CHI 9.9 6.0 1.8
12 Jose Alvarado NO 9.2 3.0 3.1
13 Jevon Carter CHI 7.5 1.7 1.5
14 Patrick Williams CHI 6.9 2.8 1.6
15 Yves Missi NO 6.1 4.7 1.2
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.0 2.0 1.3
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.0 2.6 1.1
18 Kevon Looney NO 4.0 3.8 1.4
19 Noa Essengue CHI 3.9 1.6 0.8
20 Bryce McGowens NO 3.9 1.8 0.8
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.3 1.9 0.6
22 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.8 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.