NBA games

POR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
115–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32333020115
MIL27262129103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 31 35 4 4
Deni Avdija S 31 22 4 5
Donovan Clingan S 27 14 11 4
Caleb Love 26 13 5 4
Toumani Camara S 32 13 7 3
Robert Williams III 16 8 5 0
Duop Reath 3 3 1 0
Sidy Cissoko S 28 3 1 2
Kris Murray 27 2 5 0
Rayan Rupert 16 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 27 22 6 2
Cole Anthony 18 16 2 2
Kyle Kuzma S 27 15 6 0
Myles Turner S 32 13 11 1
Gary Trent Jr. 32 12 2 3
Ryan Rollins S 30 10 5 7
AJ Green S 25 6 2 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 3 3 1 0
Mark Sears 3 3 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:32 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Jerami Grant POR
10%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
7 Myles Turner MIL
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
53%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.5 6.9 6.9
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.0 5.2 2.8
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 22.2 4.4 6.7
4 Jrue Holiday POR 19.4 4.3 8.2
5 Jerami Grant POR 19.2 4.1 3.8
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.6 4.5 2.4
7 Myles Turner MIL 14.7 6.2 2.0
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.5 5.4 2.7
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.1 10.4 1.6
10 Bobby Portis MIL 12.0 5.8 1.6
11 AJ Green MIL 10.4 2.9 2.2
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.1 1.8 1.8
13 Caleb Love POR 8.6 3.0 2.1
14 Cole Anthony MIL 8.2 3.5 5.2
15 Kris Murray POR 6.8 4.0 1.4
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.6 2.4 1.5
17 Pete Nance MIL 5.3 1.7 0.9
18 Robert Williams III POR 4.8 4.5 0.8
19 Yang Hansen POR 4.5 2.5 1.1
20 Mark Sears MIL 4.0 1.2 0.8
21 Duop Reath POR 3.9 1.5 0.6
22 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.8 0.7 0.7
23 Gary Harris MIL 3.8 1.5 1.0
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.9 0.7
25 Jericho Sims MIL 3.3 3.0 0.9
26 Amir Coffey MIL 3.1 1.4 0.8
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.0 1.9 0.6
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 1.7 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.