NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
125–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27353132125
MEM23313130115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 29 3 8
Peyton Watson S 33 27 5 3
Cameron Johnson S 37 18 6 1
Nikola Jokic S 34 17 10 16
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 13 2 1
Bruce Brown 28 9 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 15 6 6 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 6 6 1
Spencer Jones S 15 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jock Landale 31 26 10 2
Jaylen Wells S 33 22 5 3
Cam Spencer 29 18 2 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 16 6 4
Santi Aldama 33 12 6 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 8 0 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 24 6 5 7
Cedric Coward S 27 5 3 2
Zach Edey S 6 2 1 0
John Konchar 8 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Zach Edey makes driving layup (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
20%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
4 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
6 Zach Edey MEM
7%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
9 Zeke Nnaji DEN
6%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
10%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.2 12.0 11.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.9 4.8 7.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.5 5.4 1.9
4 Santi Aldama MEM 16.4 6.0 2.7
5 Cedric Coward MEM 14.1 6.1 3.1
6 Zach Edey MEM 12.7 9.5 1.7
7 Peyton Watson DEN 11.1 6.1 1.6
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.9 2.6 1.6
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 10.8 3.2 2.4
10 Cam Spencer MEM 10.4 2.4 2.9
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.8 3.2 1.8
12 Jock Landale MEM 9.5 5.1 1.8
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.0 5.3 4.8
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.5 4.3 1.0
15 Bruce Brown DEN 7.4 3.6 1.5
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.6 2.7 2.1
17 GG Jackson MEM 4.7 2.2 0.6
18 Curtis Jones DEN 3.9 1.4 1.2
19 Spencer Jones DEN 3.8 1.5 0.8
20 John Konchar MEM 3.3 2.7 1.2
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.0 0.8
22 Tamar Bates DEN 2.7 1.3 0.6
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.8 0.8
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.1 0.4
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.