NBA games

DAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
102–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL19252830102
MIA20322826106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 34 27 8 1
Max Christie S 30 15 5 2
Klay Thompson 20 13 2 0
Cooper Flagg S 34 12 7 3
Brandon Williams S 21 12 2 5
Daniel Gafford S 28 11 11 0
Naji Marshall 21 7 5 0
Jaden Hardy 5 3 2 1
Ryan Nembhard 17 2 3 7
D'Angelo Russell 10 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 29 24 7 0
Kel'el Ware S 34 20 18 0
Bam Adebayo S 29 17 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 13 6 5
Pelle Larsson S 28 9 2 6
Davion Mitchell S 32 8 3 4
Simone Fontecchio 21 8 5 5
Keshad Johnson 18 7 3 0
Dru Smith 16 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Free Throw (1 pts) · 9:29 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Norman Powell MIA
8%
8 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
19%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 24.2 3.8 3.1
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.2 7.8 3.4
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 20.2 7.0 4.0
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.1 5.2 3.6
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.4 7.0 6.1
6 Naji Marshall DAL 17.3 6.1 3.0
7 P.J. Washington DAL 16.3 7.6 2.4
8 Brandon Williams DAL 15.0 4.2 5.6
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.6 12.0 1.4
10 Max Christie DAL 13.2 4.6 2.2
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.2 3.8 4.2
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.1 3.5 6.9
13 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.4 3.1 5.3
14 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 2.8 1.8
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.6 7.6 1.6
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.3 3.0 1.6
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.7 3.7 2.9
18 Dru Smith MIA 7.6 3.3 2.5
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.2 2.0 1.0
20 Jahmir Young MIA 5.3 1.5 1.5
21 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.2 5.4 0.7
22 Myron Gardner MIA 5.1 3.2 0.8
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.6 3.2 0.9
24 Ryan Nembhard DAL 3.7 1.0 2.7
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 2.8 0.7
26 Caleb Martin DAL 2.9 2.2 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.