NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
99–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE3222222399
TOR29283122110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 17 1 8
Jaylon Tyson S 34 15 9 2
Evan Mobley S 31 14 5 4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 32 14 4 0
Tyrese Proctor 20 8 3 1
Lonzo Ball S 34 8 7 7
Chris Livingston 14 7 3 1
Larry Nance Jr. S 18 6 1 2
Luke Travers 11 5 2 1
Thomas Bryant 13 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 37 7 2
Scottie Barnes S 38 18 11 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 12 9 3
Immanuel Quickley S 33 11 6 7
Jamal Shead 24 9 0 7
Jakob Poeltl S 27 7 13 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 24 5 3 1
Collin Murray-Boyles 11 4 2 1
Ochai Agbaji 11 4 0 0
Jamison Battle 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
22%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
13%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
0%
10 Lonzo Ball CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.9 6.3 6.3
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.1 6.0 4.6
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 8.8 3.6
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.0 8.1 5.4
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 5.2 6.1
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.0 8.3 1.9
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.7 4.8 1.9
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.2 4.4 1.5
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.9 3.6 1.5
10 Gradey Dick TOR 7.8 1.9 1.4
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.1 3.9 4.2
12 Chucky Hepburn TOR 7.1 1.3 2.5
13 Jamal Shead TOR 6.7 2.0 5.3
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 3.7 1.4
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.6 1.8 1.0
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.3 2.7 0.6
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.8 1.3 1.3
18 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 1.4 0.7
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.4 1.7 0.7
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.2 2.2 0.9
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.1 2.4 1.1
22 Luke Travers CLE 3.7 2.4 0.9
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.9 2.0 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.8 1.4 0.7
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.