NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
122–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35363021122
IND32233329117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 24 11 6
Caris LeVert 23 19 1 3
Jalen Duren S 30 17 12 2
Ausar Thompson S 31 13 3 4
Jaden Ivey 12 12 3 1
Tobias Harris S 26 12 1 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 9 5 0
Duncan Robinson S 34 9 4 0
Daniss Jenkins 8 5 2 3
Javonte Green 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 24 8 3
Jarace Walker 27 21 6 2
T.J. McConnell 22 16 1 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 14 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 37 12 1 6
Jay Huff 18 11 3 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 13 10 0 0
Isaiah Jackson S 24 9 4 0
Ben Sheppard S 23 0 1 1
Tony Bradley 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
13%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
7 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.7 5.8 10.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.6 5.7 5.1
3 Jalen Duren DET 23.8 12.6 3.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.9 6.0 2.2
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.6 2.5 6.3
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.9 5.5 2.9
7 Duncan Robinson DET 13.6 3.1 2.8
8 Ausar Thompson DET 13.3 6.5 2.5
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 13.3 3.0 5.0
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.4 6.3 1.7
11 Javonte Green DET 10.5 4.4 1.6
12 Jarace Walker IND 9.9 4.1 1.9
13 Caris LeVert DET 9.7 2.4 3.6
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.6 6.4 1.3
15 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 4.0 2.1
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 2.1 2.9
17 Jay Huff IND 6.9 4.1 1.0
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.8 3.2 1.7
19 Paul Reed DET 6.6 4.7 1.4
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.0 5.4 1.0
21 Chaz Lanier DET 4.9 1.8 1.0
22 Tony Bradley IND 4.8 2.2 0.9
23 Garrison Mathews IND 4.5 0.9 0.9
24 RayJ Dennis IND 4.0 1.4 1.3
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.4 1.5 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.