NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
108–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32302224108
UTAH30252625106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
95% 5%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 33 11 8
Austin Reaves S 40 22 10 4
LeBron James S 34 17 6 8
Rui Hachimura S 29 13 6 0
Marcus Smart 17 6 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 18 5 4 1
Jake LaRavia 13 5 1 2
Gabe Vincent 20 3 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 13 2 3 0
Maxi Kleber 14 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 39 27 5 8
Lauri Markkanen S 36 20 7 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 28 12 2 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 11 10 2
Ace Bailey S 32 10 5 3
Isaiah Collier 23 10 1 3
Brice Sensabaugh 15 5 3 0
Kevin Love 13 4 9 2
Kyle Filipowski 20 4 3 2
Taylor Hendricks 1 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"LeBron James makes 4-foot dunk (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
13%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
9 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
5%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 32.6 8.3 9.3
2 Austin Reaves LAL 28.3 4.9 7.5
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.1 5.8 2.6
4 Keyonte George UTAH 25.1 4.1 6.6
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 19.2 9.8 1.6
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.5 4.1 1.6
7 Marcus Smart LAL 11.7 3.1 3.9
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.7 3.2 6.1
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.3 2.8 2.0
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 11.3 3.2 1.9
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.2 4.4 2.3
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.0 1.4 2.3
13 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.0 9.5 4.4
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.0 5.7 1.9
15 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.6 2.4 1.4
16 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.0 1.8 2.9
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.7 2.4 0.7
18 Kevin Love UTAH 5.4 3.4 1.7
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.2 3.7 0.9
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 3.8 0.8
21 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.9 2.0 3.3
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 4.7 1.3
23 Cody Williams UTAH 3.9 1.5 0.8
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.6 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.