NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30262422102
PHX25243725111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 26 5 3
Devin Vassell S 33 17 4 2
Keldon Johnson 25 14 6 2
Harrison Barnes S 35 11 3 3
Julian Champagnie S 30 10 12 1
Luke Kornet S 28 8 6 3
Jeremy Sochan 21 7 5 1
Carter Bryant 8 5 3 0
Kelly Olynyk 14 4 4 1
David Jones Garcia 13 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 35 25 3 2
Devin Booker S 38 24 5 7
Jordan Goodwin S 33 15 10 3
Collin Gillespie 30 15 3 6
Mark Williams S 29 14 11 2
Royce O'Neale S 34 9 5 1
Isaiah Livers 19 5 1 1
Nick Richards 5 2 2 0
Oso Ighodaro 18 2 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Goodwin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
14%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
4 Mark Williams PHX
12%
5 Luke Kornet SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.9 4.3 8.6
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 24.7 4.1 6.6
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.2 3.9 2.7
4 Harrison Barnes SA 13.8 3.8 2.0
5 Keldon Johnson SA 12.8 6.3 2.1
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.0 4.2 4.8
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.9 4.5 2.7
8 Devin Vassell SA 11.7 3.3 2.4
9 Mark Williams PHX 11.7 7.8 1.5
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.2 3.3 1.5
11 Luke Kornet SA 9.1 5.8 1.5
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.1 4.2 2.2
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.4 3.1 1.6
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.4 3.9 1.3
15 Nick Richards PHX 4.5 3.5 0.8
16 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.4 2.3 2.1
17 David Jones Garcia SA 4.4 2.2 2.0
18 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.7 2.0 0.7
19 Lindy Waters III SA 3.4 1.1 0.7
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.9 1.7 0.5
21 Carter Bryant SA 2.7 1.2 0.5
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 2.5 1.0 0.9
23 Harrison Ingram SA 2.0 1.5 0.3
24 Riley Minix SA 1.9 0.8 0.7
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.8 1.1 0.5
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.