NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
95–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1828222795
OKC39282926122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 24 21 3 2
Deni Avdija S 24 11 5 1
Rayan Rupert 16 10 5 0
Kris Murray 27 9 7 0
Yang Hansen 18 8 4 3
Donovan Clingan S 20 8 8 2
Caleb Love 26 8 2 2
Sidy Cissoko S 27 7 2 3
Duop Reath 19 6 3 0
Toumani Camara S 27 4 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 37 5 7
Ajay Mitchell 24 20 1 4
Isaiah Joe 24 10 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 15 8 2 1
Branden Carlson 9 8 1 2
Cason Wallace S 27 7 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 7 14 3
Jaylin Williams 14 5 2 4
Brooks Barnhizer 8 5 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 21 5 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot layup (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
53%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.8 4.8 7.4
2 Deni Avdija POR 27.5 6.9 6.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.1 5.1 2.6
4 Jrue Holiday POR 19.1 4.6 7.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.1 7.2 2.1
6 Jerami Grant POR 18.0 4.0 3.2
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.5 4.4 4.5
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.3 10.6 3.9
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.5 2.8 2.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.3 5.2 2.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 10.6 2.9 2.3
12 Donovan Clingan POR 10.3 9.7 1.2
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.7 1.4
14 Caleb Love POR 8.1 2.9 1.7
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.9 4.5 2.6
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.3 2.6
17 Kris Murray POR 6.1 3.5 1.5
18 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.1 2.2 1.3
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.6 4.3 0.7
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 2.6 0.8
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 2.2 1.1
22 Yang Hansen POR 3.9 2.1 0.8
23 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.2 0.6
24 Javonte Cooke POR 3.2 1.4 0.6
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.2 1.5 0.7
26 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.5 2.3 0.7
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.