NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
109–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN28302427109
TOR34312232119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Martin 25 26 6 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 25 6 4
Noah Clowney S 37 22 1 1
Nic Claxton S 31 10 11 3
Drake Powell 14 6 1 2
Egor Demin S 28 5 3 4
Ziaire Williams 28 5 4 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 5 6 1
Terance Mann S 21 3 2 5
Jalen Wilson 6 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 17 7 4
RJ Barrett S 20 16 2 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 19 16 1 0
Brandon Ingram S 36 14 6 4
Immanuel Quickley S 30 13 7 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 27 12 4 2
Gradey Dick 20 12 1 3
Jamal Shead 24 11 1 9
Ochai Agbaji 14 6 2 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 17 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
5 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
12%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
8 Terance Mann BKN
9%
9 Egor Demin BKN
7%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
45%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
14%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 25.6 8.5 3.5
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.0 6.4 4.6
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.3 5.5 5.0
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.6 8.5 5.7
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.9 4.8 6.1
6 Nic Claxton BKN 17.0 8.5 5.0
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.2 3.9 1.7
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.1 4.5 1.8
9 Terance Mann BKN 9.5 3.1 3.6
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 2.9 1.2
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.6 3.5 1.3
12 Egor Demin BKN 8.1 2.9 3.6
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 8.0 2.8 2.4
14 Gradey Dick TOR 7.7 2.2 1.2
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 2.1 5.3
16 Drake Powell BKN 5.8 2.0 1.5
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.6 5.1 1.7
18 Jamison Battle TOR 4.8 1.5 0.7
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.7 1.9 0.9
20 Alijah Martin TOR 4.6 2.3 0.9
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.5 1.7 0.7
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 1.0 0.6
23 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.1 2.3 0.8
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.0 1.5 0.7
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.6 1.4 0.4
26 E.J. Liddell BKN 1.5 0.9 0.2
27 Tyson Etienne BKN 1.3 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.