NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
129–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL27303240129
BOS32483028138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jett Howard 29 30 7 3
Desmond Bane S 29 18 4 5
Jase Richardson 21 18 5 2
Franz Wagner S 28 15 8 5
Anthony Black S 28 14 3 5
Noah Penda 23 13 8 4
Tristan da Silva S 23 9 1 2
Orlando Robinson S 13 7 3 1
Tyus Jones 25 3 1 6
Jamal Cain 16 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 35 4 8
Anfernee Simons 22 23 5 2
Payton Pritchard S 34 19 5 8
Josh Minott 20 16 7 1
Derrick White S 36 16 7 5
Sam Hauser 27 14 1 0
Neemias Queta S 6 6 2 0
Jordan Walsh S 24 5 3 2
Baylor Scheierman 10 2 1 0
Hugo Gonzalez 9 1 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Anfernee Simons BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
10%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.8 6.3 4.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.2 6.9 4.6
3 Desmond Bane ORL 21.0 4.8 5.4
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.3 3.9 4.6
5 Derrick White BOS 15.3 4.1 5.5
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.8 6.5 2.5
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.8 2.5 3.2
8 Anthony Black ORL 12.2 3.4 2.8
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.7 4.7 1.7
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 8.1 1.7
11 Josh Minott BOS 6.6 3.4 1.3
12 Luka Garza BOS 6.4 4.1 0.9
13 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.3 4.6 1.1
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.2 4.7 1.2
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.0 3.2 1.4
16 Jamal Cain ORL 4.7 1.7 0.6
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.3 3.8 0.6
18 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.2 2.1 0.7
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 1.5 0.7
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.7 2.6 0.8
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.5 1.7 0.7
22 Orlando Robinson ORL 3.3 1.7 0.4
23 Chris Boucher BOS 3.3 2.7 0.4
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.7 2.0 0.7
25 Tyus Jones ORL 2.5 1.3 1.3
26 Jase Richardson ORL 2.4 1.0 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.