NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA25303322110
ATL28253921113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 34 28 6 3
Collin Sexton S 36 22 0 4
Miles Bridges S 35 21 5 5
Moussa Diabate 25 12 11 1
Sion James S 32 7 6 3
Liam McNeeley 15 6 2 0
Mason Plumlee S 23 6 8 6
KJ Simpson 12 5 2 2
Tre Mann 17 3 1 1
Drew Peterson 10 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 40 28 8 11
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 23 5 4
Dyson Daniels S 36 22 9 6
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 20 7 3
Keaton Wallace 16 10 1 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 5 2 3
Mouhamed Gueye 17 4 1 1
Vit Krejci 32 1 3 4
Asa Newell 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mason Plumlee · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Mason Plumlee makes 1-foot dunk (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
22%
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
17%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
16%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
15%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
15%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
14%
7 Tre Mann CHA
0%
8 Mason Plumlee CHA
0%
9 Collin Sexton CHA
0%
10 Drew Peterson CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.0 10.2 8.1
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 23.3 6.3 3.8
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 6.3 4.1
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.8 3.8 4.3
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.1 6.2 3.3
6 Collin Sexton CHA 15.2 2.8 4.7
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.8 3.6 2.6
8 Tre Mann CHA 11.9 3.3 2.9
9 Vit Krejci ATL 11.4 2.7 2.1
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.3 6.2 7.1
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.9 9.0 1.4
12 Luke Kennard ATL 8.2 2.1 2.1
13 Sion James CHA 7.8 3.4 1.8
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.7 2.3 3.4
15 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.3 3.9 1.5
16 Jacob Toppin ATL 5.1 1.7 1.2
17 Asa Newell ATL 4.8 1.9 0.7
18 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.8 1.5 0.7
19 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.7 2.3 1.0
20 KJ Simpson CHA 4.5 1.5 2.0
21 Drew Peterson CHA 3.0 1.7 0.5
22 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.7 0.7 0.3
23 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.6 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.