NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37342828127
PHI27402624117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 29 32 4 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 22 2 7
Kel'el Ware S 26 20 16 0
Bam Adebayo S 33 18 13 1
Dru Smith 17 9 4 1
Davion Mitchell S 31 8 8 12
Simone Fontecchio 19 6 3 2
Pelle Larsson S 32 6 7 8
Keshad Johnson 19 4 1 0
Jahmir Young 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 27 3 6
Trendon Watford 26 19 9 7
Quentin Grimes S 35 15 0 3
Jared McCain 26 15 1 2
Andre Drummond S 38 14 24 1
Paul George S 20 10 2 5
Dominick Barlow 20 9 3 0
Justin Edwards S 33 7 4 3
Hunter Sallis 1 1 0 0
Johni Broome 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 25-foot three pointer (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
16%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
4 Davion Mitchell MIA
11%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
11%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
8 Justin Edwards PHI
10%
9 Simone Fontecchio MIA
0%
10 Myron Gardner MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.5 4.3 7.4
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.7 3.6 3.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.5 7.5 3.7
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.9 4.2 5.3
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.9 6.7 5.9
6 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.9 3.2 3.7
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.8 11.0 1.2
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.8 3.1 6.5
9 Andre Drummond PHI 11.5 10.9 1.3
10 Trendon Watford PHI 10.5 5.0 3.9
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.8 2.7 1.4
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.8 5.7 1.8
13 Justin Edwards PHI 7.0 2.6 1.7
14 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 2.8 2.5
15 Jahmir Young MIA 5.8 1.3 1.6
16 Myron Gardner MIA 5.7 3.4 0.9
17 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.5 3.4 1.0
18 Jabari Walker PHI 4.3 2.9 1.0
19 Jared McCain PHI 3.5 1.4 0.9
20 Johni Broome PHI 3.0 1.9 0.4
21 Hunter Sallis PHI 2.9 1.1 0.7
22 Eric Gordon PHI 2.5 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.