NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
102–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM21223326102
DAL2225262396

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 35 20 8 4
Cam Spencer 24 17 4 5
Zach Edey S 26 12 15 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 24 10 10 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 25 10 0 1
Cedric Coward S 25 9 2 1
Jaylen Wells S 31 9 5 4
Jock Landale 5 7 1 1
John Konchar 20 4 7 1
GG Jackson 8 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 28 22 1 0
Brandon Williams S 32 18 3 4
P.J. Washington S 32 15 8 4
Naji Marshall 30 13 7 4
Cooper Flagg S 33 12 7 1
Max Christie S 22 9 3 0
Daniel Gafford S 27 5 8 4
Caleb Martin 12 2 0 0
Moussa Cisse 9 0 4 1
Dwight Powell 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Max Christie makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
2 Santi Aldama MEM
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
6 Zach Edey MEM
10%
7 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
8 Brandon Williams DAL
9%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 20.4 6.6 4.1
2 P.J. Washington DAL 17.5 7.9 2.4
3 Naji Marshall DAL 16.5 5.9 3.2
4 Santi Aldama MEM 16.2 6.0 2.4
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.1 6.6 3.5
6 Brandon Williams DAL 13.9 3.7 5.4
7 Max Christie DAL 13.3 4.4 2.2
8 Zach Edey MEM 12.8 8.0 1.4
9 Jock Landale MEM 11.5 5.8 1.8
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.9 7.1 1.5
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.6 3.2 1.7
12 Cam Spencer MEM 9.2 2.4 2.9
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.2 2.7 2.0
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.0 4.7 4.4
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.7 2.8 2.3
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.5 2.0 1.0
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.0 2.6 1.0
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.0 2.4 0.6
19 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.0 5.0 0.7
20 Miles Kelly DAL 3.8 1.2 1.1
21 John Konchar MEM 3.2 2.5 1.0
22 Caleb Martin DAL 2.8 2.2 1.1
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.