NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30393525129
MIL26263331116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 33 29 8 10
Jalen Duren S 27 19 6 5
Tobias Harris S 23 18 5 4
Duncan Robinson S 28 15 3 2
Jaden Ivey 15 10 1 2
Javonte Green 13 7 1 0
Isaiah Stewart 23 7 2 1
Daniss Jenkins 13 7 1 3
Ausar Thompson S 28 6 2 1
Caris LeVert 13 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 34 24 5 7
Bobby Portis S 25 18 7 2
AJ Green S 28 15 2 2
Kyle Kuzma S 16 13 3 2
Myles Turner S 30 11 4 2
Gary Trent Jr. 19 8 0 0
Jericho Sims 24 6 5 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 29 6 4 5
Cole Anthony 14 4 3 2
Amir Coffey 2 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bobby Portis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
17%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
9%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Myles Turner MIL
8%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
8 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
15%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.7 5.3 10.0
2 Jalen Duren DET 23.2 12.5 3.0
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.5 4.2 6.3
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.5 4.6 2.1
5 Ausar Thompson DET 14.1 6.4 2.9
6 Duncan Robinson DET 13.3 3.2 2.5
7 Myles Turner MIL 13.3 6.3 1.7
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.2 4.9 2.5
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 11.5 2.6 4.6
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.4 6.3 1.5
11 Javonte Green DET 9.7 4.1 1.5
12 Bobby Portis MIL 9.5 5.3 1.4
13 AJ Green MIL 9.3 2.7 2.0
14 Caris LeVert DET 9.0 2.0 3.4
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.6 1.9 1.6
16 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 3.8 1.9
17 Cole Anthony MIL 7.7 3.4 4.7
18 Paul Reed DET 5.3 4.2 1.2
19 Chaz Lanier DET 4.0 1.3 0.8
20 Pete Nance MIL 3.4 1.3 0.5
21 Gary Harris MIL 3.3 1.4 0.8
22 Jericho Sims MIL 2.5 2.2 0.6
23 Mark Sears MIL 2.5 0.5 0.4
24 Amir Coffey MIL 1.7 1.1 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.4 0.9 0.2
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.3 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.