NBA games

WSH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
120–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH41292822120
CHI40242829121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHI
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert S 37 20 5 5
Cam Whitmore 18 20 7 2
CJ McCollum S 27 18 2 3
Kyshawn George S 36 17 12 7
Alex Sarr S 28 16 11 4
Tristan Vukcevic 20 12 8 2
Bub Carrington 24 8 3 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 25 7 2 3
Justin Champagnie 23 2 5 2
Will Riley 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 27 28 12 2
Coby White S 31 20 3 6
Josh Giddey S 34 18 12 11
Matas Buzelis S 29 13 6 1
Tre Jones 26 10 2 1
Kevin Huerter 19 9 0 3
Jalen Smith 19 9 9 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 29 8 5 1
Julian Phillips 10 4 3 0
Jevon Carter 11 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyshawn George · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kyshawn George makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
13%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
9%
10 Tre Jones CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
18%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 24.9 11.3 10.8
2 Alex Sarr WSH 21.9 9.1 4.0
3 CJ McCollum WSH 19.3 4.0 3.5
4 Kyshawn George WSH 18.4 5.2 5.4
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.9 3.4 4.0
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.3 8.2 3.7
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.8 6.8 2.1
8 Tre Jones CHI 14.2 4.7 5.1
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 13.3 4.4 2.7
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.8 4.7 3.6
11 Jalen Smith CHI 10.3 5.9 1.8
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.7 2.8 1.1
13 Jevon Carter CHI 8.4 2.0 1.7
14 Bub Carrington WSH 8.3 3.6 4.9
15 Corey Kispert WSH 7.4 2.1 1.6
16 Noa Essengue CHI 5.0 2.0 1.1
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.6 2.2 1.0
18 Malaki Branham WSH 4.6 1.9 0.7
19 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.5 2.8 0.7
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.0 3.2 0.9
21 Will Riley WSH 3.6 2.2 1.0
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 2.1 0.7
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 1.9 0.7
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.2 2.0 0.7
25 Sharife Cooper WSH 2.3 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.